The 2024 season is almost here for No. 20 Texas A&M, which opens with No. 7 Notre Dame in Kyle Field at 6:30 p.m. Saturday (TV: ABC). So it is now time to finalize various predictions for the Aggies this season, including their wins and losses, and statistical leaders.
Carter Karels
The 2024 season is almost here for No. 20 Texas A&M, which opens with No. 7 Notre Dame in Kyle Field at 6:30 p.m. Saturday (TV: ABC). So it is now time to finalize various predictions for the Aggies this season, including their wins, losses and statistical leaders.
This fall, first-year A&M head coach Mike Elko and his team could benefit from having a favorable schedule. The Aggies will not play five of the other eight ranked SEC teams, including three of the top four: No. 1 Georgia, No. 5 Alabama and No. 6 Ole Miss. The four ranked opponents on their schedule: ND, No. 4 Texas, No. 11 Missouri and No. 13 LSU – will all play in Kyle Field, too.
When sorting through A&M's entire slate, there is not one game that seems like an obvious loss. So it made sense to divide the schedule into these three tiers:
• BTHO tier: McNeese State, Bowling Green and New Mexico State. The Aggies should not only be favored to win these games. A&M also should "beat the hell out of" all three opponents, as the saying goes.
• Comfortable tier: Arkansas, South Carolina and Mississippi State. The Aggies might not blow these teams out like the BTHO tier games, but they could conceivably be favored by double-digits. A&M losing any of these three games would be a tough blow.
• Coin flip tier: Notre Dame, Florida, Missouri, LSU, Auburn and Texas. All six of these games could be decided by a field goal/one possession,making them a coin flip. Win at least half of them, and the Aggies could have a solid season. But lose more than half of them, and A&M would be in for a disappointing fall.
So, what will be the Aggies' regular-season record? The projected wins and losses on their schedule can be seen below, along with analysis for each tier. The GigEm247 staff wrote big-picture season predictions as well, which can be found here.
Projecting the wins, losses for 2024
Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame: Loss.
Sept. 7 vs. McNeese State: Win.
Sept. 14 at Florida: Win.
Sept. 21 vs. Bowling Green: Win.
Sept. 28 vs. Arkansas in Arlington, Texas: Win.
Oct. 5 vs. Missouri: Loss.
OFF
Oct. 19 at Mississippi State: Win.
Oct. 26 vs. LSU: Win.
Nov. 2 at South Carolina: Win.
OFF
Nov. 16 vs. New Mexico State: Win.
Nov. 23 at Auburn: Win.
Nov. 30 vs. Texas: Loss.
The Aggies probably would not make the College Football Playoff with a 9-3 record, but it would be a strong first season under Elko. Since 2013, A&M has not won nine or more regular-season games. Though, if the Aggies were not limited to playing only 10 games in the COVID-impacted 2020 season, they likely would have achieved that feat.
BTHO tier
While McNeese State is coming off its first winless season (excluding a forfeit) in program history, Bowling Green and New Mexico State can't be taken lightly. The Falcons won six of their final seven regular-season games in 2023, giving them momentum entering this fall. The NMSU Aggies are coming off a 10-5 campaign, marking their most wins in a season sincethey compiledan 11-0 record in 1960. Still, all three teams should be significantly overmatched against A&M.
Comfortable tier
All three of these teams enter the season with a lot of questions and might not make a bowl game. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Razorbacks (5.5), Gamecocks (5.5) and Bulldogs (4.0) all have over/under win totals of only 5.5 or worse.
Arkansas head coach Sam Pittmancould have the hottest seat in the Power Four. His Razorbacks are coming off a 4-8 campaign, which included a 1-7 mark in SEC play. They have struggled against the Aggies as well, going 1-11 in their 12 meetings as SEC foes.
Following a 5-7 campaign last season, Mississippi State fired Zach Arnett as head coach. His replacement, Jeff Lebby, has an impressive track record as an offensive coordinator. But he could have quite the rebuild on his hands. The Bulldogs ranked last in the SEC in offensive touchdowns last season, producing only 27.
Like Arkansas, South Carolina has won only one game against A&M as SEC foes while dropping the other nine. The Gamecocks also went 5-7 in 2023, marking their first season under head coach Shane Beamer they did not make a bowl game. Five of their best players in 2023 – quarterback Spencer Rattler, running back Mario Anderson, wide receivers Xavier Legette and Antwane "Juice" Wells Jr., and kicker Mitch Jeter – are no longer on their team as well.
Coin flip tier
Vegas expects all six of these games to be decided by four points or fewer. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, A&M is the betting favorite over LSU and Auburn by two points, Notre Dame by 2.5 points, and Florida and Missouri by four points. Texas is the lone betting favorite among the group, carrying a four-point edge.
The Longhorns and the Missouri Tigers made the most sense as losses for the Aggies. They are both coming off stellar seasons, with Texas appearing in the College Football Playoff and Missouri capping an 11-win campaign via a Cotton Bowl victory. Both teams look poised to replicate that success in 2024 and make the 12-team CFP. From a matchup perspective, A&M could have a tough time matching their firepower offensively.
The Irish received the slight edge over the Aggies. Notre Dame certainly has its issues up front, with starting left tackle Charles Jagusah out for the season with a torn right pectoral muscle. But in what should be a defensive battle, the Irish would likely have a narrow advantage. Their offense, defense and field goal kicking (which matters more in close, low-scoring games) all appear to be collectively better.
The LSU Tigers are the pick for A&M's best win of the season. LSU seems a bit overrated after losing both coordinators and several elite players, including Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jayden Daniels, wide receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., and defensive linemen Maason Smith, Jordan Jefferson and Mekhi Wingo. Additionally, the Aggies have played well against the Tigers at home, winning each of the last three meetings in Kyle Field.
The Gators and the Auburn Tigers probably will not be easy outs on the road. Still, in two seasons under head coach Billy Napier, Florida has not shown much to inspire confidence. With how difficult their schedule is this season, the Gators could be looking for a new head coach in December. The Tigers have a bright future under their second-year head coach, Hugh Freeze. But with Payton Thorne as their quarterback, they are probably not all that threatening.
More specific A&M predictions
Who will lead A&M in the rushing this season? Receiving? And what about the defensive categories? Below are some more specific predictions.
Offensive Player of the Year: QB Conner Weigman
The Aggie offensive line and skill position groups are not expected to be strengths, so Weigman probably will not put up gaudy numbers. But if healthy, Weigman should get the most out of those units and position himself to be a draft pick in 2025.
Defensive Player of the Year: DE Nic Scourton.
The Purdue transfer already established himself as one of the best players in the Big Ten last season, leading the conference with 10 sacks. He should have an even bigger season this fall, solidifying himself as a first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Most improved player on offense:OL Chase Bisontis.
Bisontis understandably struggled last season, starting immediately as a true freshman and playing at an unnatural position, right tackle. Now at left guard, Bisontis should show why the Aggies haveremained so high on him since his arrival.
Most improved player on defense: DE Shemar Stewart.
Stewart recorded only 1.5 sacks last season, but he easily could have had much more. Per Pro Football Focus, Stewart led all A&M defensive linemen who played at least 40 snaps in win rate (14.7%). He also ranked second on the team in quarterback hurries (26) and third in pressures (26). This fall, Stewart appears poised to turn a lot more of those opportunities into sacks. He not only looks faster and quicker. He also will have more of a featured role.
Best freshman: ATH Terry Bussey.
The Aggie offense lacks elite playmakers, and Bussey has the potential to give them exactly what they need. He is electric with the ball in his hands, which at minimum should make him a weapon in the kick return game and as a gadget player of sorts.
Passing yards leader: QB Conner Weigman.
Nothing to really explain here.
Rushing yards leader: RB Le'Veon Moss.
With Rueben Owens II out for all or most of the season, Stanford transfer EJ Smith Jr., senior Amari Daniels and the junior Moss are the only remaining scholarship running backs available for the Aggies. Even before Owens went down, Moss seemed ready to lead the group in a committee approach. He impressed the most out of the unit last season.
Receiving yards leader: WR Noah Thomas.
Over the last two seasons, various injuries have kept Thomas from breaking out as a star. When healthy, Thomas has all the makings of a player who could lead this unit in receiving. He seems due for that kind of season.
Tackles leader: LB Taurean York.
As a true freshman last season, York managed to rank second in tackles for the Aggies. He trailed onlyEdgerrin Cooper, who received consensus All-American honors and is now in the NFL. This season, York should only be better and have even more tackles.
Sacks leader: DE Nic Scourton.
If Scourton can lead the Big Ten in sacks at Purdue, imagine how much he could produce when not attracting as much attention from opposing offenses. With defenses having to worry about Stewart and defensive tackle Shemar Turner, Scourton should be even more disruptive this fall.
